Under Obamacare, Will Out of Pocket Spending Be Higher?

Not long ago, the Fear-Mongers were warning that under the Affordable Care Act, insurance premiums would spiral, causing “sticker shock.” Then the rates were published, and it turned out that, thanks to transparent markets in the exchanges, insurers had to compete on price, and premiums are lower than expected.  

But don’t worry, reform’s opponents haven’t run out of talking points. (I expect that long after most of the country has begun to enjoy the benefits of Obamacare, out-of-touch conservatives still will be muttering to themselves – rather like Japanese officers who held out in the jungles of the Philippines after WW II ended, unable to accept the fact that they had lost the war.)

In search of a new meme, they have latched onto the idea that, in the exchanges, customers will face “Staggering Out-of-Pocket Costs.” Sure, premiums may look low they say,, but wait until you try to use the policy and find yourself laying out $6,000. . Not long ago, Fox News summed up the argument: If the policy you bought in the individual market is cancelled because it doesn’t conform to the ACA’s rules, and you are forced to purchase coverage in an exchange, co-pays and deductibles will soon make you realize that the ACA is really “The Unaffordable Care Act.” 

Fox picked up the theme from a Bloomberg News story that went viral:“Obamacare Deductibles 26% Higher Make Cheap Rates a Risk,”  the Bloomberg headline screamed. As evidence, Bloomberg pointed to a survey of seven states, done by HealthPocket Inc., that compares the average deductible a consumer will face if he purchases a Bronze Plan in an Obamacare exchange to the average deductible in the private-sector market where 5 percent of Americans have been buying their own coverage. (These are the policies that are disappearing because they don’t meet the ACA’s standards.)

It turns out that the survey greatly exaggerates out-of-pocket spending in the Exchanges by focusing only on Bronze plan.  Meanwhile, the media ignores the most important number: what is the Maximum that an insurer can ask you to pay out of pocket?

The problem with many of the policies that are now being cancelled is not just that they were studded with holes  (some didn’t cover hospitalization; some didn’t cover chemo), but that in many states, a family could be asked to pay $30,000—or more—in co-pays and deductibles. . In a few states, there was no cap on the a patient’s liability.I This is how families lose their homes.

I’ve written about this here on healthinsurance.org. Read the entire post and, if you like, come back here to comment.

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Under the ACA, will YOUR Insurance Premiums Rise or Fall?

Today, many Americans are asking: will my premiums go up in 2014?

There is no simple answer.

According to Families USA ,the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will have a positive effect on the typical family’s budget. Using an economic model that can factor in all provisions of the Act (ACA), Family’s USA estimates that by 2019, when the law is fully implemented, “the average household will be $1,571 better off.”

Even high-income families will save: thanks to rules that limit co-pays, and reward providers for becoming more efficient, “those earning $100,000 to $250,000” will spend $779 less on medical care.” But these are “averages.” They don’t tell you whether your health care costs will rise or fall.

The answer will depend on: your income, your age, your gender, who you work for, what state you live in, whether a past illness or injury has been labeled a “pre-existing condition,”  and what type of insurance you have now: 

If you work for a large company:

–  The ACA will have a “negligible” effect on your premiums says the Congressional Budget Office(CB0). This doesn’t mean that your costs won’t climb at all in 2014. As  long as medical product-makers and providers continue to raise prices, premiums will edge up each year.

But in 2012 average premiums for employer-based insurance rose by just 3% for single coverage and 4% for families, a “modest increase” when compared to 8% to 12% jumps in past years. And on average, employee co-pays and deductibles remained flat.

Granted, a 3% to 4% increase still outpaces growth in workers’ wages (1.7% percent) and general inflation (2.3%) percent).But as reform reins in spending annual increases for large groups could fall to 2%–or less. 

If you work for a small company with more than 50 employees:

Your boss will be more likely to offer affordable benefits, in part because, if he doesn’t, he will have to pay a penalty

Moreover, he will find insurance less expensive. Today, small businesses pay 18% more than large companies because the administrative costs of hand-selling plans to small groups are sky-high. But starting in 2014  businesses with fewer than 100 employees will begin buying insurance in “Exchanges” where they will become part of a large group, and eligible for lower rates.

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