Health Care Spending Spikes: Why?

Recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reveals that  during the last three months of 2013, spending on health care rose at an annual rate of 5.3%. The trend continued this year, with spending climbing 6.2% on a year-over-year basis in January and 6.7% in February. Now some of Obamacare’s fiercest critics are saying “I told you so.”

“We knew this was coming,” gloats Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John McCain’s former economic adviser. “The question now is whether we can hold spending down.” It’s worth recalling that Holtz-Eakin, who served as CBO director under George W. Bush, has been wrong in the past. When I debated him on the Lou Dobbs show in 2009 he insisted that the ACA would leave us with a “ton of debt.” In fact it has reduced the deficit. And in March of 2013 when testifying before the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s Subcommittee on Health Holtz-Eakin had the chutzpa to declare that “There is anecdotal evidence, of [Exchange] premiums nearing $100,000 in New York.”  This was, of course, utter nonsense.

Still, the surge in spending came as a surprise. Since December of 2007, after adjusting for inflation, health care outlays have been rising by only 2.6%  “The sudden jump has led some some commentators to declare an end to the era of slower health-cost increases, which has lasted for the past several years,” observes former CBO director Peter Orszag observes.  Yet, Orszag notes, “Medicare spending growth is still low, even through last month. Indeed, in the first half of this fiscal year, nominal Medicare spending was only 0.6 percent higher than in the corresponding period a year earlier.”

Why Have Outlays Risen for Those Under 65, But Not for Seniors?

BEA suggests that the jump during the first two months of this year reflects the fact that, thanks to the Affordable Care Act (ACA),  more Americans had comprehensive insurance that gave them access to a wide range of services.

Those who became insured in January and February are the folks who signed up at the very beginning of the enrollment period. No doubt many of them had been postponing needed care for a long time. As soon as they were covered, they began visiting doctors, scheduling elective surgeries, and filling prescriptions. Medicare patients, by contrast, had no reasons to seek more care at the beginning of 2014. Their insurance had not changed.

Going forward, won’t the fact that more Americans are insured mean that health care spending will continue to climb?  ”No”, says  Larry Levitt, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF). This “will be a one-time bump in health spending.”
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Truth Squad: Is “Obamacare” Pushing Health Care Spending Higher? What Will Happen in 2014?

In last Tuesday’s debate Mitt Romney suggested that, under Obamacare, health insurance premiums have spiraled by $2,500 per family. Not true.  (Hat tip to Healthcarefinancenews.com.)

 First let’s get the number right: According to an annual survey of employer plans  by the Kaiser Family Foundation and Health Research & Educational Trust, since the Affordable Care Act (ACA) passed in 2010, the average annual premium for family coverage has risen by $1,975 not $2500.  $1975 is a hefty sum, but 20% less than Romney claimed.

More importantly, $1,975 represents the combined increase in contributions made by employers and employeeswith employers picking  up the lion’s share of the hike. “In reality, premiums paid by employees haven’t changed that much.Factcheck observes. In fact, when you look at the rise in how much employees contributed, “the federal health care law was responsible for a 1 percent to 3 percent increase because of more generous coverage requirements.” In other words, employees were paying a little more, but getting value for their dollars.

After telling a whopper about how much employee’s health care premiums have risen in the past, Romney went on to assert that if Obamacare is  “implemented fully, it’ll be another $2,500 on top” of that. His evidence?  None.

                                              The Media Spreads the Myths

Yet the media continues to swallow the notion that under “Obamacare” health care spending will levitate. A few days ago, the Washington Post’s Robert J. Samuelson wrote: “Almost every expert agrees that controlling health costs is the crux of curing chronic budget deficits. Health-care spending already exceeds a quarter of federal outlays. With Obamacare’s coverage of the uninsured starting in 2014 and retiring baby boomers flooding into Medicare, the share is headed toward a third.”

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